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By Dow, J. C. R.; Saville, I. D.

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As incomes and expenditure grow, so will the demand for transaction balances, so that the public is likely to hold a proportion of its increase in wealth as deposits with banks. On the side of the borrowers, with such growth persons are likely to wish to borrow more; and companies, as investment proceeds and profits rise, are also likely to want to extend their borrowing — much of it in both cases from banks. If nominal incomes rise because of inflation, though the details of the process will be affected, the general result will be the same.

Customer restraint however is likely to be less restrictive than the bankers' constraint, for borrowers typically rate their prospects more favourably than those asked to risk their capital with them. It is because of this dichotomy between the views of lenders and borrowers that borrowers are likely to want more than banks will lend, and that there is likely to be persistent excess demand for loans, or an 'unsatisfied fringe of borrowers'. Mechanisms that have an effect similar to credit rationing by banks operate also in the financial markets that are the effective alternatives to bank intermediation.

If all banks are expanding their loan books, each individual bank will on average gain extra deposits equal to its extra lending. ) Macro-behaviour of the Banking System 31 Thus, so the argument goes, the process can continue indefinitely. Like the widow and her cruse (in Tobin's phrase), the more banks lend, the more will the supply of deposits to them be replenished. (The argument is usually presented along with the proposition that there is a minimum ratio of banks' reserves to deposits, and that the authorities fix the size of the reserves.

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