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By Roy J Epstein

This comparative ancient research of econometrics specializes in the advance of econometric equipment and their program to macroeconomics. The research covers the origins of contemporary econometrics within the united states and Europe through the 1920's and 30's, the increase of `structural estimation' within the 1940's and 50's because the dominant examine paradigm, and the predicament of the massive macroeconomic versions within the 1970's and 80's. The thoroughly unique function of this paintings is using formerly unknown manuscript fabric from the information of the Cowles fee and different collections. The historical past so developed exhibits that fresh debates over technique are incomplete with no figuring out the numerous deep criticisms that have been first raised through the earliest researchers within the box

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It prefigured the entire later development of instrumental variables methods that became standard practice for most applied researchers. 31 Despite its conceptual appeal, Wright's work had no impact on econo­ metrics. The examples presented in Wright (1934) were ingenious but almost anticlimactic. They only strengthed Moore's approach for the long- HIGHER STATISTICS" IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH 33 studied agricultural cases of hogs and potatoes. 815, respectively. 034, confirming the standard view that current price was not critical in determining current output.

Only if k is less than this critical value will the answer be inherently ambiguous, unless more precise prior information is available concerning the mag­ nitude of the unknown coefficient. Such "multiple identification" was not investigated further until the work of the Cowles Commission, "HIGHER STATISTICS" IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH 45 described in chapter 2. " For important discussions of the latter see Granger and Engle (1985) and Phillips and Durlauf (1986). 41 From Frisch (1934), p. 73. ^See Malinvaud (1966).

The solution presented in the appendix fol­ lowed directly: Now by the principles of path coefficients we have rAP = ρλά and rAQ = q ^ and hence qj/pj = rAQ/rAP and η = rAQaQ/rAPaP. Similarly, 7 = rBQ/rBPaQ/aP. In his notation, "d" was the path coefficient between A and D, r was a sample correlation, η was the estimated elasticity of demand, and 7 was the corresponding elasticity of supply. Wright (1934) later refined the method to allow more general solutions. 28 The additional factor was needed only if shifts were correlated.

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